近50年沈阳气温变化与城市化发展的关系  

The changes of air temperature in Shenyang in recent 50 years and its relation to urbanization

作　　者：殷红[1] 张美玲[1] 辛明月[1] 张丽敏 陈龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学,辽宁沈阳110866 [2]葫芦岛市气象局,辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2011年第3期544-548,共5页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅重点实验室项目(LS2010146)

摘　　要：利用沈阳地区5个气象站近50年的年平均气温数据,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、M-K检验和Yamamoto法分析沈阳地区气温的年代际变化及跃变;采用趋势拟合与相关分析,研究年平均气温与城市人口、GDP、全社会固定资产投资总额、能源消耗量、建成区面积和竣工房屋建筑面积6项城市发展指标的关系。结果表明:(1)近50年沈阳地区的年平均气温缓慢上升,城区气温高于郊区,城区站增温率为0.210℃/10 a,郊区站为0.321℃/10 a,总的增温率为0.284℃/10 a。(2)近50年沈阳气温变化分为2个阶段,1960—1987年是偏冷阶段,大多数年份为负距平;1988—2009年是增暖阶段,其中21年为正距平值。(3)M—K法和Yamamoto法都检测出1987年为沈阳气温的突变年份。(4)沈阳人口、GDP、全社会固定资产投资总额、竣工房屋建筑面积和年平均气温有着显著的相关性,表明它们与沈阳年平均气温变化关系密切,建成区面积和能源消耗与气温变化不显著。Based on annual mean air temperature data of recent 50 years at 5 weather stations in Shenyang,the methods of linear trend,accumulated variance,Mann-Kendall test and Yamamoto are employed to study the decadal changes and the jumping of the air temperature in Shenyang,and trend-fitting and correlation analysis are adopted to study the relations between annual mean air temperature and 6 urban development indicators,including urban population,GDP,total social fixed assets investment,energy consumption,built-up area and the area of buildings completed.Based on the research work above,we concluded that（1） in recent 50 years,the annual mean air temperature in Shenyang region have been ascending slowly,the temperature of urban is higher than the suburban,the rate of urban station temperature was 0.210 ℃/10 a,suburban station 0.321 ℃/10 a,the total rate of warming 0.284 ℃/10 a;（2） temperature changes is divided into two stages in Shenyang recent 50 years：1960 to 1987 is a cool phase,a negative anomaly in most years;from 1988 to 2009 is the warming phase,of which 21 years are anomalies;（3） both M-K and Yamamoto method detect the temperature mutation in 1987 in Shenyang;（4） the population,GDP,total social fixed asset investment,the area of buildings completed and the annual mean temperature in Shenyang have significant correlations,but the relation between built-up area and energy consumption and temperature changes is not significant.

关 键 词：年平均气温 沈阳 气象站 累积距平 Mann—Kendall Yamamoto 城市化 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]