需求异质性、正反馈交易与住宅价格异常波动  

Heterogeneity of Demand,Positive Feedback Trading and Abnormal Fluctuations in Housing Prices

作　　者：沈悦[1] 张学峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《经济管理》2011年第6期109-116,共8页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目"基于正反馈机制的住宅价格异常波动及宏观调控研究"(08JA790100);国家自然科学基金项目"住宅价格变化的系统动力学仿真模拟研究"(71073123)

摘　　要：住宅价格的可预测性,在短期内为正反馈交易者进行投机活动,从而引发住宅价格异常波动。本文在从异质性需求视角对住宅价格上涨动力源理论解读的基础上,运用适应预期模型、状态空间模型和分阶段Granger因果检验等方法进行实证研究。结果表明,外生变量的理性预期未能充分解释近年来我国住宅价格的异常波动,特别是2006年以来,非理性正反馈投机交易是推动住宅价格异常波动的主导力量,2010年初开始的"组合拳"调控对正反馈交易心理的威慑作用已初步显现。研究结论对住宅价格调控政策制定和执行具有可借鉴意义。The predictability of housing prices in the short term for the positive feedback traders in speculative activities is giving opportunity to unusual fluctuations in housing prices. This paper analyzes the rising power source of housing prices based on the perspective of heterogeneity in the demand, then uses adaptive expectation model, state space model and granger causality test etc. to empirically analyze. The results show that： the rational expecta- tions of exogenous variables can not fully explain housing price volatility in our country these years, particularly since 2006, irrational positive feedback speculative trading is the dominant force in the unusual fluctuations in housing prices. The ＂combined＂ control on Positive feedback trading psychological deterrent since early 2010 has been initially apparent. The conclusions are worth learning the meaning to formulation and implementation of control policies on housing prices.

关 键 词：异质性需求 住宅价格 正反馈 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]