风电功率预测的发展现状与展望  

Wind power prediction achievement and prospect

作　　者：范高锋[1] 裴哲义[1] 辛耀中[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家电力调度通信中心,北京100031

出　　处：《中国电力》2011年第6期38-41,共4页Electric Power

摘　　要：风电场输出功率预测对接入大量风电的电力系统运行有重要意义。从电力调度运行的角度,在风电功率预测技术的发展现状、系统建设情况、预测误差、预测评价指标和预测的主体等方面展开论述,对目前存在的基础数据不完善、预测精度不高、预测的时间尺度较短和风电场普遍没有开展预测等问题进行分析,提出加强电网侧和风电场侧风电功率预测系统建设、加快超短期预测功能建设、继续深化预测技术研究、加强标准体系建设和开展跨行业合作等发展建议。Wind power prediction is important to the operation of power system with large amount of wind power. The current situation of wind power prediction technology, wind power prediction system construction, prediction errors, assessment index and main market body of prediction were discussed from the power dispatch perspective. The main problems of incomplete basic data, low prediction precision, prediction time scale short and lack of prediction in most wind farms were analyzed. Some improvement suggestions were proposed, such as enforcing wind power prediction system construction both on grid side and wind farm side , speeding up the building of ultra-short term wind power prediction system, deepening wind power prediction technology study and strengthening prediction technical standard system and cooperation of different industries.

关 键 词：风电场 功率预测 并网 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]