信息用户生存时间分布研究:以NSTL为例  

Research on the Information User Survival Time Distribution:Taking NSTL for Example

作　　者：赖院根[1] 曾建勋[1] 王星[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2011年第6期30-34,共5页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家科技图书文献中心项目"用户分析与服务监测系统"的研究成果之一

摘　　要：利用生存分析方法,对国家科技图书文献中心用户的生存时间分布及其影响因素展开了研究,从而可知用户的高流失率和短中位生存时间主要由"游客"引起,经常用户的生存时间服从W e ibu ll分布;不同类型用户的生存时间存在显著性差异,赠卡用户的流失速度慢于非赠卡用户;请求频率和余额比例是用户流失风险的重要影响因素,余额比例越高,流失风险越低。针对分析结果,对加强国家科技图书文献中心的用户流失管理提出了相应的对策和建议。By the use of the survival analysis method, the user survival time distribution and its influence factors of National Science and Technology Library （NSTL） are studied, thereby it＇s learned that the high churning rate and short median survival time of NSTL users are mainly caused by ＂tourists＂, the survival time of the frequent users conforms to Weibull distribution ; the survival time of different types of user has significant difference, the churning speed of the favored users is lower than that of the non-favored users ; the transaction frequency and balance ratio are the important influence factors of the user churning risk, the higher the balance ratio, the lower the churning risk. In view of the above analysis results, some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for strengthening the user churning management of NSTL are proposed.

关 键 词：信息用户 生存时间 用户分析 客户流失 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]