基于突变理论的油浸式变压器过热性故障预测方法  

Methodology of Forecasting the Oil-immersed Transformer Over-hot Fault Tendency Based on Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：全玉生[1] 谌军[1] 李巍[1] 张学东[2] 彭晓洁[2] 劳国强[2] 

机构地区：[1]高电压与电磁兼容北京市重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206 [2]东北电网有限公司,辽宁省沈阳市110006

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2011年第18期100-106,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB72408)~~

摘　　要：变压器过热性故障在变压器故障中出现的几率最高,对其预测方法的研究具有重要的工程实际意义。选取选变压器的温度为状态变量,C2H4/C2H6和CH4/H2为控制变量,建立一个变压器过热故障的尖点突变模型,通过大量的变压器过热故障案例数据对该模型能否区分不同状态的过热故障进行验证。在此基础上,提出一个基于突变理论的油浸式变压器剩余寿命预测方法,该方法能对发生潜伏性过热故障变压器的损坏时间进行预测。最后,采用两个实际案例的数据进行验证,结果证明了所提方法的实用性和有效性。The transformer over-hot fault is the most common among all kinds of transformer faults, so it is important to research the transformer over-hot fault. This paper presented a cusp catastrophe model of the transformer over-hot fault, in that the temperature of the transformer was selected as state variable and C2H4/C2H6 and CH4/H2 were chosen as control variables, the validity of this model was proved through a large number of transformer over-hot data. On the basis, the methodology of forecasting the oil-immersed transformer remaining life was presented based on catastrophe theory, by which the failure time of over-hot transformer cold be forecasted, and which was verified through two actual case of transformer. The availability and applicability of the proposed mothod was proved.

关 键 词：突变理论 电力变压器 过热故障 变压器油中溶 解气体 油纸绝缘 

分 类 号：TM85[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]