中国能源消费的EMD分析与预测  

EMD Analyses and Predictions of Energy Consumption in China

作　　者：张松[1] 金亮 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]华三通信,北京100052

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2011年第12期114-119,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：基于EMD分析,结合SVM方法构建了中国能源消费的预测模型,提供了一种新的能源消费预测思路.研究结果表明,到2020年我国能源消费量3027百万吨油当量,低于IEA2010能源展望中的预测结果.在低碳经济、节能减排已成为国际政治领域热点议题的背景下,采用定量的方法对中国能源消费状况进行分析与预测,有利于分析中国的国际政治压力及中国能源企业海外投资.Based on the EMD analyses, a forecasting model combining the method of SVM is constructed, which provides a new prediction ideas for energy consumption. The results of the study show that energy consumption in China is up to 3027 million tons of oil equivalent by 2020, which is lower than the prediction results in IEA 2010 energy outlook. Under the low carbon economic, energy saving and emission reduction has been becoming hot issues in the international political field, so using quantitative method to the analysis and prediction of energy consumption in China, will be helpful for analyzing China＇s international political pressure and Chinese energy enterprises overseas investment.

关 键 词：经验模式分解 能源消费 预测 支持向量机 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224