铜陵市资源利用与经济增长关系分析  

EXPLORING RESOURCES USE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP FOR TONGLING CITY OF ANHUI PROVINCE

作　　者：王远[1] 王义琛[1] 周婧[1] 王芳[1] 朱晓东[1] 陆根法[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2011年第6期655-660,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40701063);安徽省科技重点项目(07020304097)

摘　　要：资源利用与经济增长之间的关系是资源与环境经济学研究的重要领域。以安徽省铜陵市为例,尝试运用物质流分析方法以及最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对铜陵市1990～2008年资源利用和实际GDP二者关系进行检验和分析。采用了物质流分析指标中直接物质投入来表征区域资源利用量。ARDL边界检验结果表明了资源利用和经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系。进一步通过ARDL-ECM模型分析了区域经济增长对资源利用长期弹性系数和短期弹性系数,并揭示出资源利用对经济增长的短期和长期因果关系。研究结果表明当前资源投入在一定程度上拉动了铜陵经济增长。同时还对铜陵经济增长和资源保护战略提出了政策建议。Relationship between resource use and economic growth is the important field of resources and environmental economics studies.The paper attempts to integrate Material Flow Analysis（MFA） approach and the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag（ARDL）-bounds testing approach to examine the relationship between resource use and real GDP for Tongling City of Anhui Province,during the period of 1990~2008.The direct material input（DMI）,one of sub-accounts of MFA,is also used as the proxy variable of resource use.The results of the bounds test indicate that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between the proxy of resource use and the explanatory variable：economic growth.The long-run parameters are estimated through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model,and then the short-run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model.The study also indicates the existence of short-run and long-run causality running from resource use to economic growth.The findings imply that resource use is a stable forcing variable for economic growth in Tongling City.The estimation results are also of policy implication on economic development and resource conservation strategies for Tongling City.

关 键 词：经济增长 资源利用 物质流分析 自回归分布滞后模型 铜陵 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]