迁移元胞自动机网络舆情演化模型（M^2CA）  

A Model for the Evolution of Public Opinion in the Web Based on Migration Cellular Automata

作　　者：王根生[1,2] 勒中坚[2,3] 陆旭[4] 黄玉波[4] 丁菊玲[2,3] 杨波[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,南昌330013 [2]江西省电子商务工程技术研究中心,南昌330013 [3]江西财经大学信息管理学院,南昌330013 [4]江西财经大学现代教育技术中心,南昌330013

出　　处：《情报学报》2011年第6期570-576,共7页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家社科基金项目（编号：09BTQ034）资助

摘　　要：基于元胞自动机原理,根据网民表达观点的倾向度和坚持自己观点的自信度,提出元胞倾向转换的标准化自信度多数规则,在此基础上构建迁移元胞自动机网络演化模型（M^2CA）,运用M^2CA模型分析网络舆情的观点演化,包括粗粒度倾向度、细粒度倾向度和倾向度转换图。通过对仿真实验结果的分析,揭示了网络舆情演化的观点统一、两极分化和观点漂移的现象,分析了＂核心＂区域漂移现象和倾向度曲线多波峰现象的成因;仿真结果表明该模型能较好拟合舆情演化的规律。According to opinion orientation of internet users and their self-confidence,the tendency of cellular transformation confident standardized majority rules are put forward based on the principle of cellular automata.These rules are from cellular automata orientation transformation.Thus the migration cellular automata model（M^2CA）of internet public opinions is constructed.Using M^2CA,the evolution of internet public opinion is analyzed,including course grained orientation analysis,fine grained orientation analysis and orientation conversion graph.Through the analysis of the emulation results,the opinion concentration,polarization,and the drift,are revealed.The phenomenon of＂core＂regional drift and tendency of curve majority wave is discussed.Emulation results show that the M^2CA can better fit with the public opinion evolution laws.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 迁移元胞 倾向度 自信度 M^2CA 

分 类 号：B841.7[哲学宗教—基础心理学]