一种改进的区域滑坡危险性评价模型及其应用  

An improved regional landslide hazard assessment model and its application

作　　者：王杰[1] 马凤山[1] 郭捷[1] 魏爱华[1] 巩城城[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2011年第2期14-19,共6页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目/专题(2008BAK50B04-1);国家基金重点项目(41030750);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-02)

摘　　要：区域滑坡危险性评价方法还存在许多需要完善和改进的地方。以工程地质类比法为基础,用滑坡的面密度表示滑坡发生的危险性大小,基于线性代数中QR分解理论,提出了一种用高次多项式拟合致险因子与滑坡危险性间关系的算法,并把该算法与层次分析法模型、条件概率模型相融合,建立了一种改进的区域滑坡危险性评价模型。然后,通过在Visual Studio.Net C#环境下借助ArcEngine组件的二次开发实现了该模型。最后选取陕西省麟游县为实验区域,利用上述模型进行了滑坡危险性评价。经实际资料检验表明,该模型具有较高的可信度,可应用于今后的滑坡危险性区域评价工作中。The methods for regional landslide hazard assessment still have many aspects that are need to be improved. Based on engineering geologieal analogy and QR decomposition, using the area density of landslide to describe the landslide hazard, an algorithm that uses high order polynomial to fit the relationship between the hazard-inducing factors and landslide hazard was presented. Then, combining this algorithm, analytic hierarchy process and conditional probability model an improved regional landslide hazard assessment model was established. Then, a software was developed to realize this model under the Visual Studio. Net C # environment and using ArcEngine Components. Finally, Linyou County in Shanxi Province was selected as an experimental area to do the landslide hazard assessment. Checked by the actual data, this model has a high reliability and can be used in the future.

关 键 词：曲线拟合 QR分解 层次分析法 条件概率模型 滑坡危险性评价 GIS二次开发 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]