基于向量自回归模型的税务指标预测  

The Forecast of Tax Indicators Based on Vector Auto-regression Model

作　　者：江莉[1] 张瑞坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学数理学院,青岛266061

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2011年第18期4313-4316,4319,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：资产负债率是检查企业财务状况的一个重要指标,它的预测是很多企业所关心的。由于影响资产负债率的因素很多,选取了4个影响资产负债率的线性主要因素。根据某公司两年的资产负债率数据,选择变量,建立向量自回归模型。对下一月份的资产负债率进行预测,取得了很好的结果,相对误差控制在1.5%以内。Asset-liability ratio is an important indicator to examine the financial status of the enterprises,and its prediction is of concern to a lot of enterprises.Four asset-liability ratio of the linear impact of the main factors is selected because many factors have an effect on the asset-liability ratio.According to the asset-liability ratio data of a company for two years,VAR model for the forecast of the next month＇s asset-liability ratio is chose variabled and es-tablished,and achieved good results,the error rate of less than 2%.

关 键 词：向量自回归模型 相对误差 资产负债率 

分 类 号：O241.5[理学—计算数学]