北海市城市可持续发展能力分析  

Empirical Analysis for Beihai's Capacity of Urban Sustainable Development

作　　者：张协奎[1] 安晓明[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学公共管理学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第6期37-43,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(批准号:09XJL020);国家软科学研究计划项目(编号:2007GXQ4D181);广西软科学研究项目(编号:桂科软0799001);广西科学基金项目(编号:桂科自0991050)

摘　　要：城市可持续发展能力是城市可持续发展的内在推动器,集中体现着城市的发展潜力和发展后劲。北海市作为中国最早的沿海经济开放城市之一,在经历了开放初期的迅速发展,1992年房地产泡沫带来的冲击之后,继而调整发展战略,到目前成为广西北部湾经济区中的一个重要城市,发展一直备受关注,对其可持续发展能力进行研究尤为必要。本文通过建立北海市城市可持续发展能力的评价体系,选取AHP方法和德尔菲法,运用CSD线性组合模型和协调度α模型对北海市的城市可持续发展能力进行了分析,认为北海市2004年到2008年5年内城市可持续发展能力水平和协调度都呈上升趋势,但2005年协调性明显下降,总体来说,北海市城市可持续发展水平还不高,协调度较低。在此基础上,本文提出提升北海市城市可持续发展能力的战略和有关对策建议,即明确北海城市功能定位,加强北海市与周边区域的合作,促进城市经济、社会和环境的协调发展。Capacity of urban sustainable development is an internal impeller, embodying the city＇ s development potential and development stamina. As one of Chinese earliest coastal economic open cities, Beihai experienced rapid growth in the early period of opening-up, and the impact of real estate bubbles in 1992, then adjusted its development strategies, and now have become a major city of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi; therefore, it deserves much attention to research its capacity of urban sustainable development. This article establishes the evaluation system of urban sustainable development capacity for Beihai and selects the AHP method and the Delphi method to analyze it by the linear combined CSD-degree model and the coordination-degree model. It indicates that Beihai＇ s capacity of urban sustainable development and coordination degree were both an upward trend from 2004 to 2008, except for a decrease of coordination degree in 2005. Generally speaking, the level of Beihai＇ s capacity of urban sustainable development is not high, with a low degree of coordination. Based on this, this article gives some strategies and relevant countermeasure suggestions to improve it, such as clarifying urban functional positioning of Beihai, strengthening cooperation between Beihai and the surrounding areas, and promoting the coordinated development of economy, society and environment.

关 键 词：北海市 可持续发展能力 AHP CSD模型 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]