基于熵值法的组合预测模型及其在高峰负荷预测中应用  

The Combination Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Approach and Application in Power Peak Load Forecasting

作　　者：赵海青[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学数理学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《大学数学》2011年第3期157-160,共4页College Mathematics

摘　　要：组合预测可以综合利用各单一预测方法所提供的信息,是提高预测精度的有效途径.本文在指数平滑预测法及灰色预测方法的基础上建立组合预测模型,采用熵值法确定组合权系数,并对某电网高峰负荷进行了预测.实例表明,此模型具有很强的实用性和很高的预测精度.Combination forecasting is an effective way to improve the accuracy of forecasting as it can utilize the information from every single forecasting method comprehensively.Based on exponential tendency forecasting method and grey forecasting method,this paper sets up a combination forecasting model,in which the coefficients of combination weights are determined by the entropy approach.The combination model is used to forecast the power peak load forecasting.It is indicated that the model presents better utility and accuracy.

关 键 词：组合预测 熵 灰色预测模型 高峰负荷 

分 类 号：TM731[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] O221.67[理学—运筹学与控制论]