基于集对分析的旱情综合评价模型研究  

Study on Drought Integrated Evaluation Model Based on Set Pair Analysis

作　　者：马细霞[1] 李艳[1] 王加全[1] 石志民[1] 马庆胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2011年第6期38-39,41,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金资助项目(0411050800)

摘　　要：综合考虑气象干旱、水文干旱、农业干旱、社会经济干旱等情况,选取水库蓄水距平百分率、地下水埋深、土壤含水量、降水量距平百分率等作为旱情评价的指标,将旱情分为不旱、轻度干旱、中度干旱、严重干旱、特大干旱5个等级,建立了基于集对分析的旱情综合评价模型。从山东省42 a的实测资料中随机挑选7 a资料,对历史旱情进行了综合评价。结果表明:基于集对分析的旱情综合评价结果与模糊综合评价结果基本一致,且与实际情况相符,说明该方法在旱情评价方面具有合理性和可行性。The paper classifies the drought into 5 grades of no drought,light drought,moderate drought,serious drought and extraordinary drought and builds set pair analysis-based drought evaluation model based on integrated consideration of meteorological drought,hydrologic drought,agricultural drought and social and economic drought through selecting the indexes of anomaly percentage rate of reservoir storage,groundwater level,soil moisture and anomaly percentage rate of precipitation.It randomly selects 7-year data form 42-year observed data of Shandong Province and conducts integrated evaluation on historical drought.The outcomes show that the results of integrated evaluation based on set pair analysis are basically the same as the results of fuzzy integrated evaluation and tally with the actual situation,showing rationality and feasibility on drought evaluation.

关 键 词：集对分析 旱情评价模型 联系度 山东省 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]