滑坡位移的时序分析——以楚勐公路K64+200～K64+228路基滑坡为例  

Time Series Analysis of Landslide Displacement Take the Subgrade Lanslide of Chu-Meng Road Which Is From K64+200 to K64+228 for Instance

作　　者：张德成[1] 徐则民[1] 王志奇 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学土木工程系,昆明650093 [2]云南省公路科学技术研究所,昆明650051

出　　处：《地球与环境》2011年第2期224-230,共7页Earth and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号40572159;40772189);教育部高等学校博士点基金(编号20060674009);地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室开放基金(编号GZ2007-1;GZ2009-10);交通部西部项目(200831876725);NSFC-云南联合基金项目(编号U1033601)资助项目的成果

摘　　要：基于楚勐公路K64+200～K64+228路基滑坡位移观测资料,运用分形几何中的时间序列分析方法对滑坡位移变化规律进行深入研究,发现滑坡位移的赫斯特指数H与时间相关函数C(t)随着滑坡失稳程度的加剧呈现明显的下降趋势。研究表明:①2010年1月至7月,ZK2、ZK10和ZK11的月均位移处于递增状态,位移的H与C(t)曲线总体处于递减状态,说明滑坡稳定的持久性一直处于降低状态;截止2010年7月,ZK2、ZK10、ZK11的H值和C(t)值分别降至0.8009、0.7634、0.7642和1.5658、1.3311、1.3360,然而此时H仍大于0.5,C(t)值仍大于0,说明滑坡总体依然处于稳定状态,局部会产生小规模崩滑灾变现象。②滑坡的赫斯特指数H均大于0.5,时间函数C(t)均大于0,表明滑坡发生具有规律和随机双重性质;赫斯特指数H与0.5的偏离程度和时间函数C(t)与0的偏离程度衡量了滑坡稳定指数的差异性,进而说明随机因素在一定程度上可视为确定性因素,并用来评判滑坡动态。③滑坡位移与稳定状态具有同步的动态变化过程,说明时间序列分析方法可用于滑坡动态评价和预报。Based on the monitoring data of displacement which resulted from the subgrade lanslide of Chu-Meng Road from K64＋200 to K64＋228,this paper studied the change of displacement in the process of deformation by the time series analysis method on the basis of the fractal theory.It is found that the Hurst and C（t） index of the displacement shows a distinct trend of declining along with the gradual failure of landslide.It is indicated that the displacement has a synchronous dynamic process with the state of stabilization of landslide.The results show that： ① On the strength of Rescale Range Anlysis from January to July in the year of 2010,the monthly average displacement of ZK2,ZK10 and ZK 11 was in incremental condition and the Hurst and C（t） index of displacement had a distinct trend of declining along with the gradual failure of landslide.By the end of July in the year of 2010,although the Hurst and C（t） indices of ZK2,ZK10,ZK11 were reduced to 0.8009,0.7634,0.7642 and 1.5658,1.3311 and 1.3360,respectively,the Hurst and C（t） indices were respectively greater than 0.5 and 0.It is found that the whole landslide was in the stable condition and small-scale destruction happened.② The Hurst and C（t） indices were respectively greater than 0.5 and 0.It is said that the landslide had the properties of random and law;the rate of deviation of Hurst index and 0.5 and C（t）and 0 judged the difference of stable index.It is said that to some extent,random factors are not only regarded as the assured factors,but also used to judge the dynamical processes of landslide.③ The processes of displacement and the stable condition of landslide were coincident.It is said that the time series analysis can be used to evaluate landslide dynamics and predicate landslide

关 键 词：滑坡 时间序列分析 位移 动态 评价 预报 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] P694[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]