基于蚁群元胞自动机理论的城市饱和负荷预测  

Urban load saturation forecast based on ant cellular automata theory

作　　者：王晶[1] 冯显时[2] 郭红珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网信息通信有限公司,北京100761

出　　处：《中国电力》2011年第7期17-20,共4页Electric Power

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(10MR44)

摘　　要：随着中国经济的不断发展,城市饱和负荷的研究对未来电网发展的规划具有重大意义。介绍蚁群算法与元胞自动机的基本原理,通过组合两者的优点,建立蚁群元胞自动机的饱和负荷预测模型。该模型从土地性质转移角度出发,基于元胞自动机理论,提出土地性质元胞的转换规则,结合蚁群优化算法,得出土地性质转移率。并且通过S曲线法分析不同土地性质下饱和密度的状况。通过对某城市现状进行案例分析,论证了该方法的科学性。With the continuous economy development, the urban load saturation research has assumed great significance in tulure urban power grid development planning. The principle of ant colony algorithm and cellular automata theory are introduced first. Urban load sara ralion lorecastiug model is established by combining the advantages of both theories. From the aspect of land-use nature, the probabilities of land-use change are obtained by combing cellular land change rules and ant colony algorithm. The eharacteristic of saturation density under different land nature is analyzed by using S curve model. The feasibility of ant cellular automata model is proved by a case study using a specific city as an example.

关 键 词：饱和负荷 蚁群算法 元胞自动机 S曲线法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]