模拟软件SIMPHONY在科研项目进度计划中的应用  

The application of simulation software SIMPHONY in scientific research project scheduling

作　　者：宇德明[1] 郭乃正[1] 罗鹏宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2011年第3期84-87,共4页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：铁道部重点科研项目(2009Z005-C)

摘　　要：描述了CEM_PERT模板的5个建模要素,即根要素、工作要素、连接要素、开始要素和结束要素,讨论了利用CEM_PERT模板建立不确定环境下科研项目进度计划的步骤,并利用该模板建立了某科研项目的进度计划,得到了该项目500次模拟运行的时间-完成概率曲线;项目中不同工作最早开始时间、最早完成时间、最迟开始时间和最迟完成时间的最小值、最大值、均值和标准差;以及不同工作的关键指数。The five basic modeling elements（i.e.the root element,the activity element,the link element,the start element and the end element） were first introduced in this paper;then the detailed steps to prepare the research project scheduling under uncertain situations by utilizing this template were discussed;finally,the time schedule of a research project was prepared by using the template,and the following important time schedule information was obtained through 500 simulation runs： the time-completion probability curse of the research project;the maximums,minimums,means,and standard deviations of the Early Start,Early Finish,Late Start,and Late Finish of all activities in the project;the criticality indexes of different activities.

关 键 词：科研项目进度计划 蒙特卡罗模拟 SIMPHONY软件 实证分析 

分 类 号：F270.7[经济管理—企业管理]