中国居民高储蓄现象的实证研究——基于分位数回归分析  

Household High Saving in China:An Analysis Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：张杰平 陈国权[2] 

机构地区：[1]国信证券股份有限公司,江苏南京210002 [2]中国人民银行海口中心支行,海南海口570105

出　　处：《南方金融》2011年第6期25-31,共7页South China Finance

摘　　要：本文利用1978-2008年中国宏观经济数据,通过分位数回归的方法,从消费者预期效用最大化模型出发,分析不确定性与流动性约束在中国居民消费储蓄决策中所起的作用。通过选取不同分位点进行实证研究,证明城乡居民不同消费群体的消费行为均受到了不确定性与流动性约束的影响,但影响的程度不尽相同。在此基础上,本文提出增加居民收入、改善消费者环境和完善保障体系等若干政策建议。This paper focus on the liquidity constraints and uncertainty in accounting for the Chinese household consumption behavior,based on the consumer expected utility maximization model.We use macro data from 1978-2008 and quantile regression methods to carry out empirical research.The conclusions suggest that urban and rural residents of different consumer groups,consumer behavior are subject to uncertainty and liquidity constraints,the extent of the impact is different.This paper proposes some policies to mitigate the high growth rate of residents saving in China,based on the explanation for the empirical findings.

关 键 词：不确定性 流动性约束 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F224.7[经济管理—国民经济] F832.22