温室气体稳定目标下部门减排责任分解方法  

Allocation methodology for sectoral responsibilities of GHG emission reduction with the stabilization objective

作　　者：杨晶[1] 张阿玲[2] 韩维建 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084 [3]福特汽车(中国)有限公司,北京100004

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期521-524,共4页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

摘　　要：为了探讨气候变化背景下温室气体排放权分摊机制这一研究难点,综述了温室气体减排责任分解方法的研究现状,遵循＂共同但有区别的责任＂思想并利用WRE稳定性廓线和IEA/SMP交通模型,开发了SMP-WRE模型。应用该模型建立了一种产业部门具体减排责任的分解方法,并以中国轻型车部门为例,展示了该方法的实现过程。结果表明：全球轻型车的基准排放是目标排放的2-4倍,说明轻型车部门实现450×10^-6和550×10^-6的CO2稳定水平难度很大。目标分解后的地区排放变化率欧美国家较小、中国较大,原因是欧美汽车市场规模饱和,而中国汽车正爆发式增加,排放增加不可避免。The status quo of allocation methods for responsibilities of reducing greenhouse gas（GHG） emission was summarized to discuss the problems related to the allocation methodology of GHG emission right under climate change scenarios.A model named SMP-WRE（sustainable mobility project/Wigley,Richels,and Edmonds） was then established following the logic of ＂Common but Differentiated Responsibilities＂ and using WRE stabilization curves and the IEA/SMP transport model.An allocation method using the SMP-WRE model was developed,with a set of emission reduction objectives for China＇s light duty vehicle（LDV） sector further presented as an example of exhibiting the method implementation.The results show that the global LDV business-as-usual（BAU） emission is about 2 to 4 times the target emission,thus indicating that the CO2 stabilizations of 450×10^-6 and 550×10^-6 are very difficult to achieve for the LDV sector.The required emission change of China is much larger than those of North America and Europe,because China＇s LDVs are greatly increasing,while the vehicle markets in developed countries have already been saturated for years.

关 键 词：气候变化 温室气体 浓度稳定性廓线 排放权分配 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]