企业国际化经营中的信用风险评估和预警模型研究  

作　　者：马春英[1] 洪玫[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳大学工商管理学院 [2]上海立信会计学院金融学院

出　　处：《企业经济》2011年第7期21-25,共5页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：上海市科委软科学研究项目"企业国际化经营中的信用风险评估和预警方法研究"(批准号:09692104500);上海市教委重点学科建设项目"国际贸易"(批准号:J51702)

摘　　要：信用风险是指交易对手违约所引起的风险。信用风险的控制和防范关键不在于"事后"逾期账款的追收,而应在于"事前"信用风险的有效识别和预警。因此,如何防范和控制企业由于"赊销"而产生的信用风险,提高应收账款的回收率,已成为许多企业亟待解决的现实问题。因此,有必要以先进的技术、方法、数理理论研究信用风险的评估与预警问题。本文将Logit理论用于企业国际化经营中赊销客户信用风险的研究中,可以有效便捷地对高风险客户作区分,从而在信用风险真正发生之前进行预警,达到有效识别和控制信用风险的目的。当然,若要该模型发挥更好的作用,还需其他方面的配合:如建立企业内部评级系统、完善统一的数据库和信息管理机制及培育良好的企业信用文化等。Credit risk means the risk aroused by the default of counter party. Key to controlling and preventing credit risk is recognition and early warning o f credit risk before the event rather than pursuit in the overdue accounts ＂afte r the event＂.Therefore,how to prevent and control credit risk due to ＂credit s ale＂ and improve the rate of recovery of receivable accounts have become real is sues that enterprises have to urgently settle.As a result,it is necessary to s tudy the issues regarding credit risk assessment and early warning with advanced techniques,methods and mathematical theory.This paper applies Logit regressio n technology to study the credit risk of credit sale customers in international operation,which is able to effectively and quickly identify the customers with high risks so as to reach the goal of identifying and controlling credit risks. Of course,it is imperative to get other supports if we want to make the model p lay better role.For instance,a system of enterprise internal evaluation,compl ete and united data base,the mechanism of information management,and cultivati on of good enterprise credit culture.

关 键 词：国际化经营 信用风险 LOGIT 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]