气象灾害灾情评估指标研究与应用——以陕西为例  

Research and Application of Evaluation Index of Meteorological Disaster Losses——A Case Study in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：雷向杰[1] 蔡新玲[1] 王娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第3期22-27,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局气象灾害普查与灾情分析管理项目(气发〔2009〕177号);陕西省气象局2010年气象科技创新基金项目(2010M-19)

摘　　要：为了定量评估气象灾害造成的灾情,利用陕西1984-2007年气象灾害普查数据库,建立人员死亡率、农作物种植面积受灾率、直接经济损失率3个灾情因子评估指数并计算灾情综合指数,构建灾情因子和综合灾情年景定量评估指标,将气象灾情年景分为严重、较严重、一般、较轻和轻5类。利用建立的年景评估指标对陕西2008-2010年气象灾害灾情年景进行评估,应用到年度气候影响评价业务服务中。分析每种气象灾害灾情因子指数和灾情综合指数多年平均值,确定陕西危害度最大的气象灾害依次为暴雨、干旱、冰雹、连阴雨、气象地质灾害等。研究结果表明:陕西气象灾害造成的人员死亡率呈现减少趋势,多年平均值为3.23/百万,直接经济损失率变化趋势不明显,多年平均值为1.51%,农作物种植面积受灾率呈明显增加趋势,多年平均值为21.99%。In order to quantitatively assess losses caused by meteorological disasters,based on meteorological disaster data in Shaanxi Province during 19842007,three disaster factor indexes including the rate of death,disaster rate of crop area and direct economic loss rate are established to compute synthetic disaster condition index,then the yearly disaster loss evaluation index is established.The disaster year will be divided into five kinds： more serious,serious,in general,lighter and light.Meteorological disaster from 2008 to 2010 is evaluated by the yearly disaster loss evaluation index which is used into yearly climate impact assessment operation.Every kind of meteorological disaster factor index and synthetic disaster condition index are analyzed,the most serious meteorological disasters in Shaanxi Province are determined as rainstorm,drought,hail,continuous rain,meteorological geological disaster,etc.The results indicate that,mortality rate caused by meteorological disasters in the province shows a decreasing trend,which is 3.23/1000000 per year.The direct economic loss is not obviously changed,with an average of 1.51% for years,while the rate of crop area affected shows a significant increasing trend as 21.99% per year.

关 键 词：气象灾害 灾害普查 评估指标 年景分析 危害度 陕西 

分 类 号：P142[天文地球—天体物理] X43[天文地球—天文学]