世界水产品国际贸易空间自相关分析——基于2003-2008年世界水产品国际贸易额  

Analysis on Spatial Autocorrelation of Aquatic Products in International Trade——Based on the Date of Aquatic Products in International Trade from 2003 to 2008

作　　者：陶红军[1] 赵亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学管理学院,福建福州350108 [2]福建师范大学外国语学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第4期20-28,共9页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：福建省软科学项目"ECFA对闽台经济影响的政策效应模拟研究"(2010R0060)

摘　　要：在分析世界水产品国际贸易现状的基础上,运用空间自相关模型对2003-2008年世界水产品国际贸易进行实证分析。全局空间自相关分析表明世界水产品国际贸易存在正的空间依赖关系,局部空间自相关分析结果则进一步揭示了世界水产品国际贸易的空间集聚状态和特点。运用空间滞后函数和空间误差函数对世界水产品国际贸易进行分析,发现空间滞后模型更适合世界水产品国际贸易空间自相关分析。研究表明,世界水产品国际贸易发展水平类似的国家(地区)趋于空间集聚,但是这种空间自相关作用逐年减弱;本国(地区)国民收入是决定本国(地区)水产品国际贸易额的主要因素;世界水产品国际贸易空间滞后权重值对本国水产品国际贸易额有着正相关影响,临近国家(地区)水产品国际贸易额增加1%,本国(地区)水产品国际贸易额将增加0.24%。Based on the status quo of aquatic products in international trade,this paper uses spatial autocrrelation model to analyze world aquatic products in international trade from 2003 to 2008.The result shows that spatial dependence does exist in the world trade of aquatic products and analysis on localized spatial autocorrelation further indicates the spatial concentration and features in world trade of aquatic products.Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model of world trade of aquatic products are estimated with the findings that spatial lag model is more suitable to spatial autocorrelation analysis in world trade of aquatic products.Similar countries（regions） in world aquatic products trade are tending towards spatial concentration which is gradually weakening year by year.National income is the main factor in determining the volume of world aquatic products trade of home countries（regions）.Spatial lag weight value in world aquatic products trade has the positive correlation on the volume of world aquatic products trade in home countries.Aquatic products trade volume in bordering countries（regions） will increase 1%,while that in home countries（regions） will increase 1%.

关 键 词：水产品 国际贸易 空间自相关 空间滞后模型 局域分析 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]