大气污染化学事故危害预测数值模拟(CDM)与验证  

Numerical Simulation and Experimental Comparison on Atmospheric Pollution Chemical Accident Hazard Predicting(CDM)

作　　者：黄顺祥[1] 陈海平[1] 刘峰[1] 刘树华[2] 朱凤荣[3] 

机构地区：[1]防化指挥工程学院,北京102205 [2]北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京100871 [3]北京大学湍流与复杂系统国家重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期664-670,共7页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40975089);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金(GYHY201106033)资助

摘　　要：建立了对复杂地形上大气污染化学事故进行危害评估与预测的数值模式(CDM),该模式可以快速预测大气污染化学事故的危害范围、危害等级、危害面积和危害纵深等,为事故应急处置提供快速、直观和定量的决策依据。分别应用外场扩散和水槽模拟实验对CDM进行了验证。数值模拟与外场扩散实验的验证结果表明,二者在危害范围、危害纵深和危害等级等方面均具有很好的一致性,不同距离上剂量相对误差在1倍以内,平均相对误差为20.6%,剂量阈值为0.66和0.24 g.s/m3的危害纵深相对误差分别为-26.3%和10.2%。数值模拟与水槽模拟实验结果表明,不论是在中性大气条件下还是在稳定大气条件下,二者均吻合很好。The concentration and dose model on chemical agents diffusion or the toxic clouds diffusion model over complex terrain（CDM） is established, which can be used to assess and predict atmospheric pollution chemical accident hazard, and provides fast, intuitionistic and qnaniticational decision information for emergency. Contaminated field, contaminated rate, contaminated area, and contaminated depth may be computed in a few minutes. The comparison of field experiment results with numerical simulation results shows that contaminated field, contaminated rate, and contaminated depth are consistent on the whole, and the relative error of dose at different distance is less than one time. The mean relative error is 20.6%, and the relative error of contaminated depth are -26.3% and 10.2% respectively at 0.66 g.s/m3 and 0.24 g＇s/m3 dose. The comparison of CDM simulating results with water tank experiment results shows that they are similar highly in neutral atmosphere or stable atmosphere.

关 键 词：大气污染 数值模拟 外场扩散实验 水槽实验 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]