基于威布尔分布的疲劳剩余寿命可靠性预测方法  

Predicting method of fatigue residual life reliability based on Weibull distribution

作　　者：凌丹[1,2] 何俐萍[1] 许焕卫[1] 汪忠来[1] 朱顺鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学机械电子工程学院,四川成都611731 [2]重庆理工大学汽车零部件制造及检测技术教育部重点实验室,重庆400050

出　　处：《机械设计》2011年第7期50-54,共5页Journal of Machine Design

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50775026);重庆理工大学汽车零部件制造及检测技术教育部重点实验室开放基金课题资助项目(200901)

摘　　要：在变应力作用下,机械零件的疲劳寿命为具有分散性的随机变量。威布尔分布是一种连续的概率分布,可以用来描述各种不确定因素对机械零件疲劳寿命的影响。文中用三参数威布尔分布描述零件疲劳寿命的分布规律,建立疲劳剩余寿命的分布模型,并采用解析方法获得疲劳寿命分布参数的点估计值。对在同一应力水平下疲劳剩余寿命的分布规律进行了探讨,结果表明:当前年龄越大,可靠度曲线越陡峭,疲劳剩余寿命的可靠度越低;而年龄越小,疲劳剩余寿命的概率密度曲线越平坦,剩余寿命的分散性越大。The fatigue life of mechanical components is a random variable with discrepancy under the action of varying stress.The Weibull distribution is one kind of continuous probability distribution,and can be used to describe the influence on the fatigue life of mechanical components by uncertain factors.In this paper,three-parameter Weibull distribution is used to describe the distribution regularity of component＇s fatigue life,a distribution model for predicting fatigue residual life is established,and the point estimated value of the fatigue life parameters was acquired by applying analytical method.The distribution regularity of fatigue residual life under same stress level has been discussed.The result shows that the longer the working lifetime,the steeper the reliability curve,and the shorter the residual life.However,the shorter the working lifetime,the more dispersible the fatigue residual life.

关 键 词：疲劳可靠性 剩余寿命预测 威布尔分布 

分 类 号：TH114[机械工程—机械设计及理论]