山西晋南地区近56a的气候变化特征、突变与周期分析  

Characteristics and analysis of abrupt and cyclic climate changes in the southern Shanxi Province in recent 56 years

作　　者：高文华[1] 李忠勤[1,2] 张明军[1,2] 张克新[1] 郭盼盼[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/天山冰川站,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第7期124-127,共4页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2007CB411501);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-127);国家自然科学基金项目(40631001;40571033;40701035;40371028;J0630966);国家基金委创新群体项目(40121101);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-10-0019)资助

摘　　要：利用1954～2009年山西省晋南地区气候观测站平均气温和降水量资料,运用多年趋势线、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动t检验和小波分析等方法对晋南地区气候变化特征、突变以及周期特征进行了分析研究。结果表明:近56年来,山西晋南地区的气候有向干暖化转化的趋势。年平均气温上升趋势明显,其变化率为0.28℃/10a,尤其是冬、春季升温最剧烈;年降水呈微弱减少趋势,平均以-1.61mm/10a的速率减少,夏季的降水减少最剧烈。晋南地区年平均气温和年降水均有明显突变,年平均气温在1987年发生突变;年降水在1983年发生突变。对山西晋南地区气候要素的周期分析表明,年平均气温和年降水量存在多尺度的周期变化,其中,年平均气温以6a、10～15a和20～25a周期为主;年降水量以4～7a、8～13a和14～20a周期为主。Based on the observed data of the mean annual temperature and precipitation from the south of Shanxi province weather stations from 1954-2009,the feature of climate change,abrupt and cyclic were analyzed with a multi-year trend line,moving t-test technique,and Mann-Kendall abrupt change test and wavelet analysis methods.The results indicate that the climate of the south of Shanxi province trends to becoming dry and warm.It was clear that the mean annual temperature had an obviously increasing tendency,the change rate was 0.28℃ per 10 year,and the mean annual temperature had a great change in the winter and spring;The precipitation in these years was in a descending tendency by-1.61mm per 10 years,and the decreasing tendency of the precipitation was great in summer.There were obvious abrupt characteristics for the mean annual temperature and precipitation in the southern Shanxi province,and the mean annual temperature and precipitation jump occurred in 1987 and in 1983,respectively.The cyclic analysis of the climate indicated that there were characteristics of multiple time scales in the time series of climate change.The fluctuation periods of mean annual temperature were 6a、10～15a and 20～25a and the precipitation fluctuation periods were 4～7a、8～13a and 14～20a.

关 键 词：山西省晋南地区 气候变化 突变分析 MORLET小波分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]