广州城市代谢效率的模拟分析  

Simulation Analysis of Urban Metabolic Efficiency in Guangzhou City

作　　者：吴玉琴[1] 严茂超[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州510640 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第8期1555-1562,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(编号:2007B031800019)

摘　　要：城市代谢研究是评价城市可持续发展的重要依据,而代谢效率是衡量城市代谢好坏的标准。本文从城市生态经济系统的观点出发,建立广州市系统动态模拟模型,运用stella软件模拟了广州城市2000年-2020年的生态环境变迁情况;并从整体环境功能角度,建立自然环境支持效率指标、资源生产服务效率指标和环境承载同化效率指标,作为评价广州市代谢效率的依据。研究结果表明,广州市人均自然资源使用量呈现出下降趋势,城市固体废弃物却在增加;自然环境不仅面临人为的开发压力,而且也反映出其环境调节能力将持续降低;城市经济活动越来越依赖进口的货物和劳务,城市所能享有的生态服务区域已逐年减少,环境质量因污染而下降;城市代谢出现的线性模式不利于广州城市的可持续发展。未来广州城市发展要增加城市对自然环境的反馈控制,调整和改善目前的代谢机制,加强系统自组织能力的发挥。Studying urban metabolism is an important measure to evaluate the sustainable development of a city. The metabolic efficiency is the standard of the process quality. By means of the Stella Modeling, this study adopted an eco-economic approach to simulating the metabolism of Guangzhou during the period 2000-2020 and established the natural environmental supporting efficiency, the resource production serving efficiency and the environmental carrying capacity efficiency as the metabolic efficiency indices from the perspective of the overall environment. It was found that the use of natural resources per person shows a decreasing trend. The environment faces not only the pressure of urban development, but also reflects decreases in the regulating potential. Urban economic activities of Guangzhou have become increasingly dependent on importing goods and services, corresponding to increases in the output of the waste. The urban environment quality and the ecological service area have been decreasing, which would impede the sustainable development of Guangzhou. It is suggested that positive treatments of nature feedback control be promoted, the metabolic mechanism be adjusted and improved, and its capability of self-organization be perfected in Guangzhou

关 键 词：城市代谢 代谢效率 动态模拟 STELLA 广州 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]