农业投资与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析  

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Agricultural Investment and Income Growth of Rural Residents in China

作　　者：刘耀森[1] 左正强[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院经济与管理学院,重庆404100

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第8期72-76,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部"春晖计划"项目(S2007-1-63005);重庆市教育委员会2009年人文社会科学重点项目(09SKM17)

摘　　要：在建立向量自回归模型的基础上,运用广义脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解考察农业投资与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结论表明,在1981~2006年的样本区间内,农业投资的各个组成部分在促进农民收入增长中的贡献度和影响力有着显著差异,并且存在着一定的作用时滞。但从长期来看,我国农业投资与农民收入增长之间存在着紧密的联系,随着时间的推移,其作用程度渐趋稳定和显著。因此,在运用农业投资促进农民收入增长的政策选择上,应采取长期政策而非短期政策,并通过建立持续稳定的投资增长机制来保证其促进农民增收的拉动作用。Based on the foundation of vector auto-regression model,The paper applies generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition to portray the dynamic correlations between agricultural investment and income growth of rural residents.The result shows that the various components of agricultural investment have great differences in the contribution and influence of promoting the peasant incomes from 1981 to 2006,and there exists the favorite time lag of agricultural investment to income growth of rural residents.In the long term,there exists extremely close relationship between agricultural investment and income growth of rural residents.As time goes on,the positive effect of agricultural investment will gradually become stable and significant.Therefore,taking the advantage of agricultural investment to promote income growth of rural residents,we should take long-term policies rather than short-term policies.At the same time,we should make sure that agricultural investment plays strong pulling effect on the income increase of rural residents by establishing a sustainable and steady investment growth mechanism.

关 键 词：农业投资 农民收入增长 向量自回归 广义脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F3[经济管理—产业经济]