河南省主要粮食作物波动分析  

Fluctuation Analysis on Main Crops in Henan Province

作　　者：张志国[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院环境与规划系,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2011年第8期698-700,739,共4页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：河南省教育厅自然科学研究项目(编号:2011B210029);河南省政府决策招标研究项目(编号:2011B589)

摘　　要：为了减少粮食生产波动给粮食安全带来的不良影响,采用剩余法对改革开放以来河南省主要粮食作物的波动特征进行了分析。结果表明,河南省的粮食总产和三大粮食作物产量在今后一段时间内都将保持增长趋势,粮食产量的增加主要得益于单产的增加,主要粮食作物波动属古典型波动,波动剧烈。河南省粮食总产的波动指数和三大粮食作物产量波动指数的相关性基本相当,说明河南省粮食总产的波动受三大粮食作物的影响基本相等,提出了河南省粮食生产的建议。The fluctuation of main crops was important to the food security.By residual method,this paper conducted the analysis on the fluctuation characters of the main crops in Henan Province.The results showsed that the total grain yield and the output of main crops would maintain growth trend,the growth of the grain yield was mainly benefitted from unit grain yield since 1978,the fluctuation of main crops was violent classical fluctuation,the correlation among the grain yield and main crops yields was equal.At last,a few suggestions were given.

关 键 词：波动分析 剩余法 主要粮食作物 河南省 

分 类 号：S51[农业科学—作物学]