气候变化移民:极端气候事件与适应——基于对2010年西南特大干旱农村人口迁移的调查  

Climate Change Migration:Extreme Climate Events and Adaptation Survey on Rural Migration in Southwest China in the 2010 Severe Drought

作　　者：余庆年[1,2] 施国庆[1] 陈绍军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学中国移民研究中心,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学公共管理学院国土资源管理研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第8期29-34,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2010B123142011B10414);国家社会科学基金资助(编号:10BRK001)

摘　　要：国际上对气候因素引致人口迁移的直接关联性和重要程度一直存在争议。2010年我国西南地区遭受的特大干旱给探索极端气候事件和气候变化移民之间的复杂关系提供了研究背景。在此特大干旱影响下,当地农村居民是否、以及怎样采用迁移的方式来应对?本文以2010年8-9月在受灾严重的云南省昆明市寻甸县所进行的田野调查为基础,揭示了特大干旱背景下当地农村人口的迁移行为及特征。调研结果表明在所调查的村组并未因此极端气候事件而引起大规模的气候变化移民活动,无论是暂时的还是永久的。为了解释灾后当地农村人口的迁移选择,本文引入"气候变化—人口迁移响应"的基本理论框架模型,考虑公共和私人两个层面的作用,对当地政府、村集体和农户自身的灾后适应行为进行深入分析和效果评价。结果表明在公共层面的各类帮扶和救助下,农户自身亦采取了多样化的适应措施,两个层面适应行为的共同作用缓解了特大干旱给农户生计带来的压力,使得农户家庭成员的迁移并不成为必须的选择。Academic debates exist over the direct causation between climate change and migration and the importance of climate change imposed on migration.The 2010 severe drought that occurred in the southwest region of China provided the research background for studying the complex relationship between extreme climate events and climate change migration.Did the local rural residents take migration as an adaption way to respond to this extreme climate event and how？ Based on the survey of rural migration in the five villages in the seriously drought-affected Xundian County of Kunming Municipality,Yunnan Province this article described the rural migration activity and its characteristics.The survey showed that the severe drought did not cause large-scale rural migration as anticipated.Whether temporarily or perman ently referring to the conceptual model of migration in response to climate change,this article looked at the role of public and private adaption to migration.Reviewing and evaluating the adaption activities of local governments,village collectives,and rural households,this article found the reasons for no anticipated large-scale migration.Beside the help from the public level,farmer households individually conducted various adaption ways.The integrated role relieved the pressure of the severe drought on the livelihood of farmer households and thus migration did not become a compulsory choice.

关 键 词：极端气候事件 适应 气候变化移民 农村人口迁移 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]