国家创新能力形成的系统动力学模型及应用  

A system dynamics model of the formation of national innovative capacity and its applications

作　　者：刘凤朝[1] 冯婷婷[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连理工大学经济系,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《科研管理》2011年第8期17-25,共9页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"国家创新能力形成机理与中国路径选择";编号(70973012);期限:2010.1-2012.12;国家自然科学基金项目"政府R&D投入绩效分析的理论模型及其应用研究";编号(70773014);期限:2008.1-2010.12

摘　　要：本文从分析国家创新能力形成机理入手,建立基于过程导向的国家创新能力概念框架。首先,通过将国家创新体系划分为载体、环境和成果三个子功能模块,绘制国家创新体系各要素间的一般因果关系图。其次,运用径向基神经网络模型对各个功能模块之间关系的基本假设进行检验,并在此基础上建立以政府政策对创新成果影响为主线的系统动力学模型。最后,通过向创新系统内输入延时、脉冲、阶跃函数,进一步探讨政府科技投入、人才培养、知识产权保护以及税收优惠等对国家创新体系产出的影响。The formation mechanism of national innovative capacity is analyzed and the process - oriented conceptual framework of national innovative capacity is designed. Firstly, by dividing the national innovation system into three basic functional modules including resources, environment, and output, the general cause - effect feedback loops of the NIS are designed. Secondly, the RBF neural - network is used to testify the basic assumptions on the relationship between different function modules, and based on the testing results, the System Dynamics （SD） model which is aimed at to show how government policies affect the innovation is set up. Finally, by introducing input delay, pulse and step function into the NIS, how S＆T investment, personnel training, intellectual property protection, tax incentives, and other factors affect the output of the NIS is discussed.

关 键 词：国家创新能力 神经网络 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]