上海市住宅价格影响因素及未来走势研究  

Shanghai Housing Prices of Factors and Future Trends

作　　者：盖美[1] 田野[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学,大连116002

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2011年第8期139-145,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：辽宁省社科规划基金项目(项目编号:L07CJL028);辽宁教育厅创新团队项目(项目编号:2008T101)

摘　　要：本文采用实证分析方法，以2000-2009年上海市宏观经济数据为样本选取上海市33个经济社会指标。通过主成分分析得到影响上海市商品住宅价格的4个主成分并以指标载荷得分为其命名，即：需求因素，供给因素，市场因素，土地因素。选取主成分代表指标，通过多元回归方法求出其与上海市商品住宅价格的回归方程，并以此为依据进行预测分析。分析结果显示，需求因素为影响上海市住宅房价的最主要因素，供求矛盾推动了上海市商品住宅价格的持续走高，并在未来一段时间仍然保持上升趋势。文章最后从政府监管和需求者角度分别给出了相关建议。This paper chose the 2000 - 2009 data of Shanghai for the samples and select 33 economic and social indie, atom to empirical analysis. By principal component analysis, we obtain four principal components of the house price in Shanghai and namely demand factors, supply factors, market factors and land factors. This paper selected representatives of the principal component in- dex and calculate them with the price of commercial housing in Shanghai regression equation by multiple regression. Analysis showed that demand factors is the most important factor of shanghai house prise, supply and demand drive the price of commercial housing in Shanghai continued to rise, and remains an upward trend for some time in the future. Finally, from the perspective of government regulators and the needs of consummers some suggestions were given.

关 键 词：住宅价格 影响因素 未来走势 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]