沱江流域成都段水环境系统预警研究  

Warning of water environmental system of Chengdu section of Tuojiang River Basin

作　　者：朱杰[1] 祝义平[2] 曾秀莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学工学院,成都610101 [2]西南交通大学地球科学与环境工程学院,成都610101

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第4期126-129,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(07CJY027);四川省公益项目(2007SGY034)

摘　　要：为了给区域水环境风险管理提供风险起因、发生概率、影响过程、后果等直接信息,以沱江流域成都段为例,开展了流域水环境系统预警定量研究。在前期大量现场调研、预测及水环境容量核算的基础上,采用距离指数-层次法对该流域成都段水环境系统进行现状评价,得出沱江流域成都段水环境系统2006年综合指数为0.502,处于不良状态和缓慢恶化之间;而后运用系统动力学方法对水环境系统4个代表指标进行预警,得出在综合对策发展条件下2010年该流域水环境系统安全能力指数为0.28,处于安全与不良状态之间。This paper intends to present the results of our quantitative study of the water-warning environment system of the Tuojiang River Basin by taking Chengdu Section as our case study in hoping to provide a more effective risk-incidence probability evaluation and the regional water environmental management. However, since such kind of study of water environment warning system remains at the initial stage, it is still impossible for us to provide a comprehensive deci- sion-making approach to the prevention and control of water pollution. Therefore, what we can do is to do necessary preliminary on-site sur- vey and assess the water environmental capacity and collect enough amounts of data by using neighbor index-AHP for status quo evalua- tion of the water environmental system of Chengdu basin section. Based on what we have done above we have reached a conclusion that the composite index of water environment system in Chengdu Section of Tuojiang River Basin in 2006 is 0. 502, that is, in a boundary sit- uation between the abnormal state and the slow deterioration. And, then, by applying the dynamic system approach and the four repre- sentative indexes of water environment system warning assessment, we have inferred that, under the development condition of comprehensive strategy, the security capability index of water environment system in this basin in 2010 is 0.28, between security and abnormal state. Thus, it can be said that the system proposed by us helps to lay a theoretical foundation for evaluating the subsequent industrial distribu- tion, management decision and comprehensive control of the water environment capacity of this basin.

关 键 词：环境工程学 沱江流域 现状评价 距离指数-层次法 系统预警 系统动力学法 

分 类 号：X7[环境科学与工程—环境工程]