铁路路网运输能力可靠性研究  

Carrying Capacity Reliability of Railway Networks

作　　者：郑亚晶[1] 张星臣[1] 徐彬[1] 王伶俐[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2011年第4期16-21,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60776835)

摘　　要：铁路路网运输能力可靠性是指在规定的条件(路网结构、固定设备、移动设备及一定人力与运输组织水平)下和规定的时间内,考虑日常随机因素以及不可抗力因素等的影响,铁路路网所能提供的各种服务能满足OD需求波动的能力.本文在分析了国内外路网能力可靠性研究和铁路运输的特点上,提出了铁路路网能力可靠性的概念,并构建了相关路网能力的计算模型及能力可靠性的计算方法.最后,以一个铁路路网为例,计算了不同OD需求水平下路网的可靠性.结果表明,OD需求的波动对路网的可靠性有着直接的影响,稳定OD需求的波动对于路网运输能力的发挥有着积极的作用.The railway network carrying reliability refers to the carrying capacity meeting the OD demand which consciously changed with random and irresistible factors under prescribed conditions and stated time.Based on reviewing the domestic and international achievements of carrying capacity reliability research and analyzing the characteristics of railway transportation,the paper presents the definition of the carrying capacity reliability of railway network.Then,a model for railway network capacity calculation is developed and the approach for reliability determination is proposed.In the final section,a numerical experiment is conducted with different levels of OD demand.The result shows that the fluctuation of OD demand directly affects the carrying capacity of railway networks,and the effective control of fluctuation plays a positive role for good performances of railway networks.

关 键 词：铁路运输 可靠性 MONTE-CARLO模拟 铁路路网 路网能力 

分 类 号：U292.5[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]