基于竞争对手反击的电信客户流失挽留研究  

Research on customer churn detainment in telecom based on rival counterattack and customer detainment value maximization

作　　者：罗彬[1] 邵培基[1] 罗尽尧[1] 刘独玉[2] 夏国恩[3] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都610054 [2]西南民族大学电气信息工程学院,成都610041 [3]广西财经学院工商管理系,南宁530003

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2011年第8期17-33,共17页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70801021);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20080431276);教育部人文社会科学资助项目(08JC630019)

摘　　要：首先分析了挽留激励、竞争反击、自然衰减和口碑传播这4种效应对客户保持率产生影响的动力学模型,并得到了客户保持率在客户挽留周期中的演进路径;接着定义了挽留激励系数、竞争反击系数、自然衰减系数和口碑影响系数来具体刻画这4种效应的作用力.然后基于客户保持率的演进路径得到了客户挽留周期计算模型,分别基于竞争对手反击效应存在性的不同情况建立了3类客户挽留价值计算模型.最后基于客户挽留价值和挽留成本建立了客户流失挽留评估模型,基于挽留重要性指标建立了客户挽留顺序选择模型.实验结果表明所提出的客户流失挽留方法是可行且有效的.Firstly,a dynamic mechanism affected by four effects,which are the detainment excitation effect,the natural bleeding effect and the word-of-mouth effect is analyzed,and the evolution route of customer retention rate in customer detainment cycle is obtained;secondly,four coefficients influencing customer retention rate are proposed,which describe the effects above,including detainment excitation coefficient,competition counterattack coefficient,natural attenuation quotient and word-of-mouth influence coefficient;thirdly,customer detainment cycle is obtained based on the evolution route of customer retention rate,and customer detainment value models are established under three circumstances depending on whether the competition counterattack effect exists or not;finally,a customer detainment cost evaluation model based on customer detainment value and customer detainment cost is established,meanwhile,a customer detainment ranking model based on the importance of detainment is built.The experiments results suggest that the customer churn detainment method put forward in this paper is feasible and very efficient.

关 键 词：竞争反击效应 挽留激励效应 自然流失效应 口碑传播效应 客户挽留评估模型 客户挽留顺序选择模型 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]