基于GM(1，1)模型的新能源预测及分析  

Prediction and countermeasures of new energy based on GM(1,1) model

作　　者：杨少梅[1] 梅林[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期106-109,共4页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：河北省教育厅基金资助项目(SZ2010504)

摘　　要：随着河北省能源消耗增加、环境污染严重,开发利用新能源已经成为解决能源问题和环境污染的根本途径。通过GM(1,1)模型对河北省能源生产量和消费量进行预测,从而对新能源发展进行前景预测,并从风力发电、小水电、太阳能、地热能和生物质能五个方面进行分析。从发展新型产业链核心,整体布局、突出地区特色,加强技术研发及其相关配套工作三方面提出新能源开发利用的对策。GM(1,1)模型用于新能源前景预测领域,模型正确,方法适用,提出的对策具有一定的实践性和推广性。With energy consumption increasing and environmental pollution is serious in Hebei province, the development and utilization of new energy has been fundamental way of resolving the energy and environmental pollution problem. Here we forecast the energy production and consumption in Hebei Province based on GM （ 1, 1 ） model. Forecast the development prospects of new energy and then analyze from five aspects, including wind power, small hydropower, solar, geothermal and biomass. Put forward countermeasures of new energy use from three areas, firstly, developing the new industrial chain core; secondly, overall layout, highlighting the regional characteristics; thirdly, strengthening technology R＆D and supporting work. To forecast the prospects areas of new energy, GM （ 1, 1 ） model is correct, the method is suitable, and the proposed measures have certain practicality and generalization.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 能源 新能源 前景预测 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]