Projection of global mean surface air temperature changes in next 40 years: Uncertainties of climate models and an alternative approach  

作　　者：FU CongBin QIAN Cheng WU ZhaoHua 

机构地区：[1]Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China [2]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [3]Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science & Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, F132308 USA

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2011年第9期1400-1406,共7页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of Chi-na (Grant No. 2011CB952000);the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China (Grant No. 40810059003);Qian Cheng was partly supported by the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090103);Wu Zhaohua was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of USA (Grant No. ATM-0917743)

摘　　要：The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future cli mate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean tempera ture. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an al ternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011–2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection.The Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change （IPCC） concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability （MDV）, have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future climate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean temperature. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an alternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011-2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection.

关 键 词：decadal prediction global warming multi-decadal climate variability the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition CMIP3 multi-model 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]