基于蒙特卡洛方法的海上搜寻区域确定模型  

Determining maritime search area model based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：姜华林[1] 孙昭晨[1] 李黎 刘波 吴俊萍 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室,大连116023 [2]天津市西戈数字科技有限公司,天津300384

出　　处：《水道港口》2011年第4期285-290,共6页Journal of Waterway and Harbor

基　　金：国家创新研究群体科学基金(5092100)

摘　　要：为了提高海上搜寻与救助的成功率,采用FVCOM模型进行遇难海域表面流场的数值预报,并与实测结果进行比较。采用经验公式法确定不同漂浮物种类风致漂移速度与风速的关系。引入蒙特卡洛方法,通过量化影响漂移的不确定性因素,确定漂浮物位置随时间变化的概率密度函数,并以统计区域作为搜寻区域,编制程序建立搜寻区域确定模型。模型实例验证效果较好,可为搜救工作的开展提供依据。In order to improve the success rate of maritime search and rescue,FVCOM model was adopted for numerical forecasting of the surface flow field in the accident sea area,and the calculated results were compared with experimental results.Empirical formula method for the relation between wind and the motion of the drifting object was employed.A Monte Carlo technique was introduced to generate an ensemble that accounting for the uncertainties.The ensemble yielded an estimate of the time-evolving probability density function of the search object,and its envelope defined the search area.This model was validated using actual case.The results show that it agrees well with the actual data,and it can provide the basis for carrying out search and rescue operations.

关 键 词：搜寻区域 风致漂移 蒙特卡洛方法 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] O242.1[理学—计算数学]