网上商品热销的影响因素探析——基于分位数回归的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of the Factors Influencing the Online Popular Products——Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：周耿[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《财经论丛》2011年第5期100-105,共6页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71002028);南京大学商学院青年教师科研基金资助项目(09-04)

摘　　要：本研究从网上销售的影响因素出发,采用搜索程序获取了淘宝网的4059个货架1周的销售数据,通过分位数回归方法对不同热门程度产品的价格、信誉、保障标记以及口碑的需求弹性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,随着产品热门程度的提高,信誉的需求弹性不断增强,而价格、保障标记以及口碑的需求弹性却不断减弱。由此表明,产品的价格降低,保障标记级别和口碑的提升都能使销售趋于分散,而提高商家的信誉却能加速销售向热门产品集中,使得"热门更热"。Based on the factors of online sales,the paper designs a research program to obtain sales data from 4059 shelves on the taobao website in a week.The paper uses the method of quantile regression to analyze the elasticity of demand by price,reputation,assurance seals and word of mouth.The results show that the more popular a product is,the greater the elasticity of demand by reputation is and the weaker of elasticity of demand by price,assurance seals and word of mouth are.It is clear that when lowering the price or improving grade of assurance seals and word of mouth,the ratio of unpopular products will become larger.Meanwhile,when improving the seller＇s reputation,the popular products will become more popular.

关 键 词：长尾理论 热门产品 分位数回归 网上销售 

分 类 号：F713.36[经济管理—产业经济]