我国城乡居民收入差距预测模型比较研究  

Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap

作　　者：涂雄苓[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学金融与统计学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第24期15057-15059,15062,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：采用1978-2010年的全国城乡居民收入差距数据,主要研究多种模型在全国城乡居民收入差距预测中的应用,通过实证分析建立了ARIMA模型、灰色模型、二次多项式多种预测模型,并进行了精度比较,结果表明,二次多项式预测模型拟合效果更好。利用此模型对2011-2013年全国城乡居民收入差距趋势值进行了预测,2011-2013年全国城乡居民收入差距预测值分别为14 173.20、15 212.92、16 289.67元。最后在分析的基础上提出了相关对策：首先,强化政府公共服务的职能,协调资源,努力为社会成员提供一个平等发展的机会,以达到提高公民福利,促进社会公平的目的;其次,打破行业垄断,平抑垄断行业与一般行业人员收入差距;最后,支持、鼓励和倡导成立社会救济基金,从民间的角度调节居民收入分配,努力提高低收入阶层收入水平。By using the data concerning China＇s urban-rural residents＇ income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China＇s urban-rural residents＇ income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China＇s urban-rural residents＇ income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20 yuan,15 212.92 yuan and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation：first,strengthen government＇s function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people＇s welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents＇ income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

关 键 词：城乡居民收入差距 ARIMA模型 灰色预测模型 二次多项式模型 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]