中国工业部门的碳排放：影响因素及减排潜力  

Carbon Emissions of Industrial Sectors in China:Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Potential

作　　者：国涓[1,2] 刘长信[1] 孙平[3] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025 [3]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第9期1630-1640,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目号:70901016);国家社科基金重大项目资助(项目号:10zd&010)

摘　　要：本文首先采用修正的Laspeyres指数分解方法,分析了1994年-2007年中国工业及分工业部门CO2排放的主要影响因素,解析了差异原因。然后,基于退耦理论深入研究了工业部门碳排放与经济增长之间的耦合状态和减排政策执行的有效性。最后,对各分工业部门的减排潜力进行定量分析。本文的主要结论是:①工业产出是中国工业部门碳排放增长的主要正向影响因素,能源强度效应是主要的负向影响因素,它们对碳排放的影响分别为357.20%和-248.67%;食品工业、纺织工业、机械工业和其它工业的碳排放呈现出递减的趋势,而石油、电力工业部门的碳排放量增加最多;②1994年-2007年和2000年-2007年工业部门碳排放的退耦指数分别为0.63和0.56,说明碳排放与经济增长处于弱退耦状态,减排政策的执行还缺乏一定的有效性;③深度挖掘石油、电力工业、煤炭工业及冶金工业部门的减排潜力将是工业部门减排的关键。Unraveling influencing factors of carbon emissions and exploring decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions are of theoretical and practical significance for making emission reduction policies,exploiting emission reduction potential,and ultimately achieving a win-win development and emission in industrial sectors.Decomposition analysis was used in this study not only to explain changes in industrial CO2 emissions,but also to comparatively evaluate progress made in industrial sectors in decoupling emissions from industrial growth.The analysis was performed for the period 1994-2007.The refined Laspeyres model was used to determine the impact of 4 explanatory factors：output,energy intensity,structure,and fuel mix.The obtained results were further elaborated in order to assess the real efforts undertaken in industrial sectors and its effectiveness in dissociating economic and environmental dimensions of development.First,we used the refined Laspeyres index decomposition method to examine the main factors from CO2 emissions in industries and analyze reasons for these differences.Then based on the decoupling theory,we examined decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions and the effectiveness of implementation of emission reduction policies.Finally,emission reduction potential of sub-industrial sectors was analyzed in a quantitative manner.The main conclusions are：1） the output effect is the dominant positive factor for carbon emission growth in China’s industrial sectors,and the energy intensity effect is the main negative factor for carbon emission reduction.During the period 1994-2007,the impacts of the two were 357.20% and-248.67%,respectively.The food industry,textile industry,machinery industry,and other industries showed a decreasing trend in emissions.Emission from the oil industry increased most,up to 217.75%;2） During the period 1994-2007 and 2000-2007,the decoupling index of carbon emissions from the industrial sector was 0.63 and 0.56,respectively.This indicates that carbon emissions and

关 键 词：CO2排放 因素分解 退耦 减排潜力 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]