中国外贸出口与经济增长关系的实证研究  

Research on the Relationship between the Foreign Trade Export and Economic Growth of China

作　　者：李鹏雁[1] 丁力[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学人文与社会科学学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第3期53-58,共6页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：以中国为对象,运用时间序列模型,分析1979—2008改革开放30年间出口导向型模式与进口和国内经济增长的关系,结果表明,三者间存在长期均衡关系,由此建立的回归模型显示,出口能够促进一国国内经济增长,进口是一种补充,并且进口能够推动出口。此外,由于我国的特殊情况,出口对进口的拉动作用不明显。为使出口导向型模式在国民经济发展中发挥更大作用,我国应积极从"两个转变,两个消化"的方向对其进行调整。This paper analyzes causality between export-oriented mode and import as well as domestic economic growth for China from 1979 to 2008 by using the panel data.The results indicate that,there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables.Panel regression models show that the export can promote a country＇s domestic economic growth;the import is a complement and also promotes the export.In addition,due to China＇s special circumstances,the impact of the export on the import is not obvious.In order to make export-oriented model play a greater role in national economic development,China should actively adjust it in the ＂two shifts,two digests＂ direction.

关 键 词：出口导向型模式 外汇储备 对外依存度 内部需求 时间序列模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]