Richards模型在甲型H1N1流感大流行实时预测研究中的应用  

Application of Richards model in real-time incidence prediction of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)

作　　者：何凡[1] 徐旭卿[1] 陈小娇[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省疾病预防控制中心应急办,浙江杭州310051 [2]徐州医学院公共卫生学院

出　　处：《疾病监测》2011年第8期643-646,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的研究浙江省甲型H1N1流感的流行规律,为有效防控甲型H1N1流感疫情提供科学依据。方法利用浙江省2009-2010年的甲型H1N1流感发病资料,拟合Richards模型,估计流行拐点、预测发病总数和估算基本再生数R0。结果 2009年5月至2010年3月,全省共报告甲型H1N1流感病例13 487例,发病率26.04/10万。浙江省甲型H1N1流感的流行分两波峰,2009年9月22日为第一个小高峰下降的拐点,R0为2.44(95%CI:1.75～3.96)。2009年10月10日为第二波峰出现上升的拐点,2009年11月28日为全省疫情出现下降的真正拐点,该拐点在出现后的第16天即能被监测到。全省预测的总病例数为13 642.82例,实际报告13 706例,误差率仅为0.46%,模型拟合的确定系数R2为0.999,R0为1.33(95%CI:1.31～1.35)。结论 Richards模型在实时预测甲型H1N1流感流行时效果良好,且能较为及时的监测到流行拐点。Objective To study the characteristics of pandemic influenza A（H1N1） in Zhejiang province.MethodsRichards model was fitted by using the incidence data of pandemic influenza A（H1N1） in Zhejiang during 2009-2010 to estimate the inflection point of epidemic,basic reproduction number and total case number.Results A total of 13 487 pandemic influenza A（H1N1） cases were reported from May,2009 to March,2010 in Zhejiang with the incidence of 26.04/lakh.There were two incidence peaks,the first one was on September 22,2009,the basic reproduction number was 2.44（95%CI：1.75-3.96）.The incidence rose again on October 10,2009 and peaked on November 28,2009,the second peak could be found 16 days later.The estimated case number was 13 642.82 and the actual case number was 13 706,the error rate was only 0.46%.The coefficient of determination（R square） for Richards model was 0.999 and the basic reproduction number was 1.33（95%CI：1.31-1.35）.Conclusion Richards model is effective in real-time incidence prediction of pandemic influenza A（H1N1） and could found the inflection point of epidemic in time.

关 键 词：甲型H1N1流感 Richards模型 基本再生数 流行拐点 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]