盈余管理差异与预警模型构建——来自ST公司的经验证据  

Differences in Degree of Earnings Management and the Construction of Financial Crisis Early Warning Model

作　　者：邵毅平[1] 路军[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《郑州航空工业管理学院学报》2011年第5期127-136,共10页Journal of Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics

摘　　要：财务指标有可能受到企业盈余管理行为的影响从而不能很好地体现公司的运营情况,因此传统的单纯基于财务指标的预警模型在预测企业财务危机方面具有一定的局限性。文章首先检验了财务危机公司与非财务危机公司之间盈余管理程度上存在的差异,进而选取不容易受盈余管理行为影响的现金流量指标和公司治理指标构建了预警模型,对比发现,基于现金流和公司治理指标的预警模型的预测效果显著好于传统的单纯基于财务指标的预警模型的预测效果。Earnings management behavior would make the financial information distorted,so the traditional modeling of financial crisis construction in the firm level using only financial indicators in financial statements has some limitations.In contrast to this,this paper firstly examines whether there were differences of the company＇s earnings management between firms in financial crisis and healthy companies,and then this paper uses cash flow index and corporate governance indicators which would not affected by earnings management behavior easily to construct model for business financial distress.The empirical results show that financial crisis warning model based on cash flow index and corporate governance variables has a good warning effect.

关 键 词：盈余管理 预警模型 现金流指标 公司治理指标 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]