弹道导弹落点密集度综合评定方法  

Comprehensive evaluation method for falling points' dispersion of ballistic missile

作　　者：郑小兵[1,2] 董景新[1] 张志国 孟令晶 

机构地区：[1]清华大学精密仪器与机械学系 [2]大连91550部队

出　　处：《中国惯性技术学报》2011年第4期499-504,共6页Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology

基　　金：国家"十一五"预研项目(51308050208)

摘　　要：针对导弹小子样试验中精度评定工作需要,设计了一种弹道导弹落点密集度综合评定方法。首先从平衡研制方风险和使用方风险的角度出发,讨论了最小试验发数的确定方法;然后设计了序贯试验检验方法,论证了试验过程中达成最优试验样本的可能性;从仿真手段和验前信息两个角度切入,讨论了参数Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法在小子样试验密集度估计中的应用方法。最后仿真实例验证了该方法的有效性。A comprehensive evaluation method for falling points＇ dispersion of ballistic missile is presented in order to improve precision-evaluation work for small-sample test.Firstly,the determination method for the minimal testing number is deduced starting from balancing producer＇s risk and consumer＇s risk.Then,a sequential test method is designed to discuss the possibility of gaining optimal testing number in the course of test.In order to solve the problem of dispersion evaluation in small-samples test,the applications of parametric Bootstrap and Bayes are respectively studied from simulation method and prior information utilization.Finally,the simulation is made which verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

关 键 词：落点密集度 最小试验发数 BOOTSTRAP方法 Beyes方法 

分 类 号：U666.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]