天津市水资源足迹趋势预测与动态调节  

Trend Forecast and Dynamic Adjustment for Water Footprint of Tianjin

作　　者：李健[1,2] 张吉辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津理工大学循环经济研究院,天津300191

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2011年第5期131-134,共4页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：天津市科委项目(07ZLZLZT03500);天津社科规划项目(TJJJ06-017);天津市经信委项目(2010-KT-009(2));天津市高校人文社科项目(20082105)

摘　　要：为解决区域水资源相对不足的问题,以天津市为例,从水足迹视角,根据其实际情况,综合运用自上而下和自下而上两种算法,从生产用水(第一产业、第二产业、第三产业)、生活用水、生态用水和污水排放等方面计算了2004—2009年水资源足迹情况,并运用精度较高的拟合函数对其未来几年水资源足迹量、人口数量分别进行了趋势预测,从而得到天津市人均水资源足迹处于下降趋势的结论,并针对这种趋势(2015年将降至617m3),建议从调整产业用水结构、转变虚拟水贸易策略、优化产品消费结构、提高三大产业污水排放达标率、建立水足迹定期监控和预警机制等方面进行动态调节。In order to solve the relative shortage of regional water resources,Tianjin was taken as an example from the perspective of water footprint.Top-down and bottom-up algorithm were both used according to its actual situation.The water footprint situation of Tianjin in 2004—2009 was analyzed from the aspects of production water（the primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry）,domestic water,ecological water and sewage water as a case study.Fitting functions with high precision were used for trend prediction of water footprint and the population in the next few years,and then got the conclusions that water footprint per capita of Tianjin was in downward trend.For this trend（maybe fall to 617m3 in 2 015）,some adjusting strategies were proposed： adjust the industrial structure of water utilization,change the virtual water trade strategy,optimize product consumption structure,increase discharge standards of the three major industrial effluent,establish regular monitoring and early warning mechanism.

关 键 词：水资源足迹 虚拟水贸易 趋势预测 动态调节 天津市 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]