基于LMDI的南京市工业经济能源消费碳排放实证分析  

Analysis of Carbon Emissions for Industrial Sector Energy Consumption in Nanjing Based on the LMDI Model

作　　者：史安娜[1,2] 李淼[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100 [2]河海大学江苏省循环经济研究中心,南京210098

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第10期1890-1896,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:10BGL079);国家软科学研究计划项目(编号:2010GXS5B140);江苏省社会科学基金项目(编号:08EYD028);江苏省软学科研究计划项目(编号:BR2009039)

摘　　要：工业经济的能源消费是碳排放的主要来源,研究城市工业经济能耗碳排放的特征和影响城市工业经济能耗碳排放的因素具有很强的代表性。本文以南京市为例,首先从碳排放总量和碳排放强度等指标分析了2000年-2009年南京市工业经济碳排放现状和特征,然后运用LMDI方法构建了南京市工业经济能耗碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了2000年-2009年间产业规模、能源强度、能源结构和能源排放强度四个影响因素对南京市工业经济碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,产业规模效益是南京市工业经济碳排放增长的主要促进因素,能源强度效应是南京市工业经济碳排放增长的主要抑制因素,能源结构效应和能源排放强度效应对南京市工业能源结构效应没有明显变化。在此基础上,提出了减排的相关政策建议。The low-carbon development mode provides an option for addressing environment and climate change problems in the context of global warming. Carbon emissions have become the focus in the area of low-carbon economic development. The industrial economy is a major source of carbon emissions. Characteristics and factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban industrial economy were investigated. The authors first discussed characteristics of carbon emissions from carbon emissions and intensity and some other indicators of the industrial economy in Nanjing for the period 2000-2009. Economic development and industrial energy consumption in Nanjing exhibited two characteristics of carbon emissions, i.e., there is a close correlation between increases in carbon emissions and growth of industrial output and this correlation is often positive. Second, the rate of Nanjing’s industrial output growth is far more than the rate of industrial carbon emissions. Based on these characteristics, a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） model was built to unravel the carbon emission mechanism of the energy sector in Nanjing from the perspectives of industrial scale, energy intensity, energy structure, and energy emission intensity. Results show that industrial scale emissions of the industrial economy are a major driver for growth. However, the energy intensity is a major obstacle for growth in carbon emissions from the industrial economy in Nanjing. The energy structure and intensity effects on energy emissions have no significant effect on the energy structure change. Some suggestions on carbon emissions reduction in Nanjing were given, i.e., optimizing the industrial structure, promoting the progress of low carbon technologies, increasing science and technology investment, introducing advanced energy-saving technologies, enhancing energy structure adjustment with considerations of low carbon energy and renewable energy, adjusting and optimizing the energy structure of the industrial economy in Nanjing, achieving t

关 键 词：碳排放 LMDI 能源消费 南京 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]