河北省能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系  

Relationships between Energy Comsumption-Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Hebei Province

作　　者：武红[1,2,3] 谷树忠[4] 周洪[1,2] 王兴杰[1,2] 董德坤[1,2] 胡咏君[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]石家庄经济学院,石家庄050031 [4]国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所,北京100010

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第10期1897-1905,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家发改委应对气候变化司2011年度项目:"中国绿色经济发展思路研究"

摘　　要：经济发展离不开能源消费,而能源消费引起了大量的碳排放,能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间的关系研究对实施节能减排、发展低碳经济具有至关重要的意义。本文基于统计年鉴数据,测算了河北省1980年-2009年能源消费引起的碳排放总量,并分能源类别测算了煤炭、石油、天然气三种一次能源的碳排放量,在此基础上做了其变化轨迹分析及与京津地区的比较分析。结果表明:从1980年-2009年,河北省碳排放总量及煤炭、石油、天然气引起的碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,碳排放主要来自于煤炭消费,与京、津两市相比,河北省自2000年后碳排放量增长迅速。之后,本文分别从近似关系和脱钩关系两个角度刻画了能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系。近似关系主要表现在:1980年-2009年,河北省能源消费总量与碳排放总量的变动趋势近似;能源强度与碳排放强度的变动趋势近似。脱钩关系主要是基于脱钩理论及脱钩弹性指数给予了定量表达,即在1980年-2009年期间,碳排放与经济增长的脱钩弹性指数类型、能源消费与经济增长的脱钩弹性指数类型在同年份表现完全一致,且在大部分年份指向弱脱钩状态,脱钩程度受宏观经济形势、产业结构、能源消费结构、经济发展模式、技术进步等因素的影响而变动,未来一定时期内弱脱钩发展趋势可能仍将持续。本研究结果将对河北省制定碳减排和能源发展战略及策略提供科学依据。Economic development is highly related to energy consumption and energy consumption results in much carbon emissions. Examining relationships among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth is important to implement policies regarding energy saving, emissions reduction, and low carbon economy. The international community has been progressively promoting carbon emissions reduction and making efforts to form new macro background. As a developing country, China is keeping rapid economic growth. Meanwhile, it is making substantial efforts to achieve carbon emissions reduction goals. China has entered a fast industrialization and urbanization development stage at which the energy demand intensity is high. Coordinated development among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth is necessary for harmonious society construction. Based on statistical data, the authors estimated the amount of energy-related carbon emissions and carbon emissions from different types of primary energy, including coal, oil, and natural gas in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2009. Then changes track for carbon emissions and comparative analysis were performed. Results show that the total carbon emissions and carbon emissions caused by coal, oil, and natural gas were increasing in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2009. Carbon emissions came mainly from coal consumption. Compared to Beijing and Tianjin, carbon emissions in Hebei showed a rapid increasing trend since 2000. The consistent relationship and decoupling relationship were subsequently examined among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth. The consistent relationships are as follows. First, change trends in energy consumption and carbon emissions were similar. Second, changes in energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity were similar. Decoupling relationships provided a quantitative expression based on the decoupling theory and decoupling elasticity index. During the period 1980-2009, the decoupling elasticity index between carbon emissions

关 键 词：经济增长 碳排放 能源消费 脱钩分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]