北京地区明代、清代干旱灾害与气候事件研究  

The draught disasters and climate events in Beijing in Ming and Qing Dynasty

作　　者：陈颖[1] 赵景波[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [2]中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710075

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第9期176-182,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重大研究项目(05JJD770014);中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目(SKLLQG0814)资助

摘　　要：根据北京地区历史时期旱灾资料,利用数学统计方法中的参数区间估计研究了明清时期该地区旱灾的差异和气候的不同。结果表明:在北京地区明代(1368-1643年)276年内,共发生旱灾166次,平均1.66年发生1次;轻度旱灾47次,中度旱灾56次,大旱灾55次,特大旱灾8次。在清代(1644-1912年)的269年里,共发生旱灾62次,平均4.34年发生1次;轻度旱灾24次,中度旱灾25次,大旱灾10次,特大旱灾3次。北京地区明清旱灾差异显著,明代旱灾频次是清代的1.7倍;明代旱灾等级比清代显著高,前者的大旱灾与特大旱灾占旱灾总数的27.6%,后者的大旱与特大旱灾仅占5.7%。明代干旱气候事件频繁,清代干旱气候事件少见。北京地区明代旱灾发生频繁和旱灾等级高的原因是当时气候变干和干旱气候事件频繁出现引起的,指示明代是气候较为干旱的时期。北京地区清代旱灾频次低和等级低是当时降水量较多的结果,指示清代是较湿润的时期。明清时期大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为390mm左右,特大旱灾发生时为230mm左右。According to the historical materials of drought disasters in Beijing and an interval estimate of a population parameter in statistics,we researched the difference of draught disasters and climate during the Ming and Qing Dynasty in Beijing.As the results showed,during the period of Ming Dynasty（from 1368 to 1643）,there were 166 drought disasters which occurred once every 1.66 years.In this period,the numbers of the slight,moderate,serious and extremely serious drought disasters were 47,56,55,and 8 respectively.During the period of Qing Dynasty（from 1644 to 1912）,there were 62 drought disasters which occurred once every4.34 years.In this period,the numbers of the slight,moderate,serious and extremely serious drought disasters were 24,25,10,and 3 respectively.There were remarkable difference of draught disasters between Ming and Qing Dynasty.The number of draught in Ming Dynasty were 1.7 times more than that in Qing Dynasty.The grades in Ming Dynasty were obviously higher than that in Qing Dynasty.The former＇s serious and extremely serious drought disasters were 27.6 percent of the total draught numbers,and the latter＇s were only 5.7 percent.Ming＇s draught climate events occurred frequently,and Qing＇s were scatter.The reasons of Ming＇s frequent draught disasters and higher draught grades were that the climate became drier and the draught climate events occurred frequently,which indicated that Ming Dynasty was a dry period.The reasons of Qing＇s fewer draught disasters and lower draught grades were that there were much more precipitation in this period,which indicated that Qing Dynasty was a relatively wet period.When the serious drought disasters occurred in Ming and Qing Dynasty in Beijing,the annual precipitation was about 390mm.When the extremely serious drought disasters occurred,the annual precipitation was about 230mm.

关 键 词：北京地区 旱灾差异 明代与清代 灾害等级 气候变干 干旱气候事件 区间估计 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]