山地冰川区气温重建比较研究——以祁连山老虎沟冰川区为例  

Reconstruction of air temperature at glacier area in mountain——A case of Laohugou glacier area

作　　者：杜文涛[1] 秦翔[1] 孙维君[1] 刘宇硕[1] 侯典炯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室祁连山冰川与生态环境综合观测研究站,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第10期149-154,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2007CB411501);科技部基础专项(2006FY110200);国家自然科学基金委基础人才培养基金冰川学冻土学特殊学科点(J0630966/J0109);所青年基金(51O984821)资助

摘　　要：以老虎沟冰川区实地观测数据及其附近6个气象台站观测资料为基础,通过普通克里格、反距离平方、样条函数及多元回归方法插值比较,同时解译区域气候模式产品并辅以高程校正,重建本区的气温变化过程。研究表明:各插值获取的气温要素以及区域气候模式产品进行校正之后的气温要素显示较为一致的变化过程,其中普通克里格方法最为接近本区实际气温变化过程。反演结果显示:过去50年来本区气温增加1.48℃,经历了高-低-高的变化过程。M-k分析揭示:本区自1994年以来气温上升显著。老虎沟地区较北半球、中国及青藏高原等地升温幅度大,与祁连山均态水平相当。Based on the observed data of Laohugou and 6 weather stations around it,we reconstructed Temperaturverlauf at Laohugou glacier area by ordinary Kriring,intervse distance weighted,spline function,multiple regression analysis and RCM amending by elevation.The result showed a more consistent process about air temperature change inverting by all different methods,of which the most ordinary Kriring method is mostly closed to the actual process of change in this area.The inversion results showed that： air temperature had increased 1.48 ℃ over the past 50 years,experienced high-low-high trend in the change process.M-k analysis revealed that temperature has risen significantly since 1994.The rate of temperature increasing in the Laohugou Region was larger than that in the Northern Hemisphere,China and Tibetan Plateau,and similar to the averaged state of Qilian Mountains.

关 键 词：插值 地统计 老虎沟 RCM 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]