海洋工程人因可靠性定量分析方法与应用  

Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis Methods and Application of Offshore Engineering

作　　者：柴松[1] 余建星[1] 杜尊峰[1] 晋文超[1] 周清基[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院港口与海洋工程教育部天津市重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2011年第10期914-919,共6页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家科技重大专项资助项目(2008ZX05026-006);上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室研究基金资助项目

摘　　要：结合海上油气生产作业的特点对认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)中的共同绩效条件进行改进,并引入可靠性影响指数来表征任务环境的综合特征,以此推导出一种简化的人误概率(HEP)计算方法;然后采用Markov方法以HEP为参数进行人因可靠度函数建模,并利用CREAM中的控制模式导出海洋工程人因可靠性评价标准.对渤海某平台的人因可靠性分析的结果表明,该方法合理易行,具有推广价值.According to the characteristics of offshore production operations, the common performance conditions （CPC） from cognitive reliability and error analysis method （CREAM） were improved, and a reliability impact index was presented to characterize the overall contexts of tasks. Using the reliability impact index, a simplified quantitative method for determining human error probability （HEP） was derived. Furthermore, a human reliability analysis model was established based on Markov method. And based on the control model from CREAM, a human reliability assessment criterion was presented. An example of the application of this method was given, and results showed that the established model was reasonable and practical.

关 键 词：人因可靠性分析 海洋工程 认知可靠性与失误分析方法 人误概率 

分 类 号：TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]