西北五省区入境旅游客源市场动态演化结构分析研究  

ANALYSIS ON DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF TOURIST MARKET OF INBOUND TOURISM IN FIVE NORTHWESTERN PROVINCES

作　　者：南宇[1,2] 杨永春[2] 史婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学旅游学院,中国甘肃兰州730070 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,中国甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《经济地理》2011年第9期1558-1565,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(08CJY052)资助

摘　　要：西北区入境旅游人数和外汇收入增长趋势明显,但入境旅游时间和空间结构不太合理,波动较大,应合理进行空间布局及旅游消费结构优化。文章运用旅游客源市场评价指标体系,从时间、空间、消费结构方面,深入分析了大量相关数据,运用EXCEL软件统计分析、文献分析等方法,定量计算分析了1999—2009年11年间西北区入境旅游客源市场地理空间结构、亲景度和竞争态的时空演替特征、包括西北区目的地竞争态动态演化模式,"亲景度-市场竞争态矩阵模型"。11年间西北区主要入境旅游市场亲景度差异显著且年度变化不大,但竞争态却呈现上下波动态势,探讨了亲景度和竞争态市场不显著的相关性。建议通过合理定位国际客源市场,为西北区旅游开发提供基础资料、规划与决策依据,提出开拓西北区入境旅游客源市场的针对性对策。The number of inbound tourists and the income of foreign exchange are on the increase. However, the problem is that the temporal structure and the spatia! structure of inbound tourism are not that reasonable and fluctuate a lot. So we should reorganize spatial distribution and refine tourism consumption structure. This article uses evaluation index system of tourist market to analyze a vast number of data in fields of time, space and consumption structure. On this basis, we do quantitative calculation and analysis of spatial structure of international tourist market in northwest, temporal and spatial evolving feature of the preference scale and the competition state, including dynamic evolution pattern of competition state of destinations in northwest as well as ＂the preference scale and the marketing competition state matrix model＂ during the 11 years （from 1999 to 2009） by EXCEL and documentary analysis. It also does a comparative analysis on tourist market of inbound tourism in five northwestern provinces and dynamic evolution pattern of market structure of destinations. During these periods, there were significant difference and little annul change in the preference scale of main inbound tourism market in northwest. By contrast, there was marked fluctuations in the competition state. It is highly advised that international tourist market should be reasonably located to provide fundamental materials for tourism exploration in northwest and offer evidences for plans and decisions. Only in this way can it be possible to make pertinent strategies to develop tourist market for inbound tourism in northwest.

关 键 词：地理集中指数 入境和目的地客源市场 亲景度和竞争态 时空动态演化 波士顿矩阵法 西北五省区 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]